Baseball's confused wild card system

Dear Joel,

By now, the New York Mets would've clinched their division with only 84 wins (in reality, they clinched last weekend with 88). In the NL Central, it took 100 wins out of 159 games for the Cardinals to clinch theirs. The Chicago Cubs, who have the third best record in all of Major League Baseball and would've clinched any other division by now, are sitting at third in their own division, and will have to participate in the (totally un-baseball-like, and irrefutably unfair) win-or-go-home wildcard playoff game next week. And then there's the Pirates -- a 96-win team who has to settle for second place, and could very well be knocked out after a single postseason game. Why? Because the Cubs have a pitcher named Jake Arrieta, who doesn't give up runs. Like ever.

Earlier this week (Monday, to be specific) was the 4-year anniversary of the greatest single day in regular season sports that I have ever experienced. It was the final day of the 2011 baseball season, and this was before there were 2 wild card teams in each league. The wild card spots were undetermined, and there were 4 games across MLB that would have an impact on who would get them. There's a great story from Tom Verducci about that night that you can read HERE. If you'd like to watch a 45 minute documentary on what transpired that night, you can watch it HERE.

So as the 2015 season winds down, I wanted to briefly explain why the new(ish) format of having 2 wild card teams in each league who play a single game to determine who gets to play in the LDS is stupid.

First, baseball is a 162-game season made up exclusively of series against other teams. Except for make-up games that might be necessary due to rain-outs, teams always play each other in mostly 3- or sometimes 4- (and, much more rarely, 2-) game series throughout the season. Teams are built around the ability to win 2 out of 3 games against a given opponent. It's a sport in which the best teams in the league lose at least 54 games (or 1/3) every year. In fact, the best team in the league this year has lost 59 (and could end up losing as many as 62). It's ridiculous and contrary to the make-up of the season itself to then tell a postseason team that they have only ONE chance to earn a spot in a postseason series. It'd be like having the first NFL playoff round consist of only 2 quarters. Or a playoff hockey game that's only 1 period.

Second, 4 years ago when I watched those games play out and teams were fighting for a wild card spot, it was riveting, because winning meant you could extend your team's life at least 3 more games (the divisional series is best-of-5). In today's system, those teams would be fighting only to extend their lives at least 1 more game. There's less excitement in clinching a "wild card spot" that might only be a single game.

Third, the seeding system is a little messed up. Pre-2012 when there was 1 wild card per league, the wild card team would play the team with the best record in each respective league, unless those two teams were in the same division. That could partly protect two really good teams from one division from having one of them eliminated in the first postseason round. In today's system, either the Mets or the Dodgers (who are 4 and 5 games behind the Central division's 3rd-place Cubs, respectively) will for sure end up in the National League Championship Series. Meanwhile, only one team out of the NL Central division (who has the top 3 teams in all of baseball) will make it to that series.

I understand the arguments in favor of the current system. There is incentive to win the division, because otherwise you have to burn your #1 pitcher in order to win the play-in game. I understand that more fan bases can get excited about the postseason because there's a whole other team who makes the playoffs in each league. I understand that MLB makes more money by having another game, and the accompanying hype and ratings that come with it. But based on the design of the sport and the season, it just doesn't make sense.

Maybe one of these days I'll be foolish enough to explain why instant replay in baseball is terrible for everyone...

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NFL Quartz Ball

First of all, I know it doesn't make much sense, but I completely agree with you about the AFC and the DH in baseball. I don't know that I had ever consciously made the connection in my own mind before, but as I read your reasoning for disliking the AFC, it was like words were being put to my own thoughts.

Secondly, as I've grown in love for baseball over the years, my NFL fandom has abated somewhat. I pay almost no attention to the goings-on in football during the offseason. Usually, for the first 3-4 weeks of the NFL season, I'm still learning about big-name players who are no longer on the teams I thought they played for. Instead, spring, summer and fall are spent paying attention to baseball. I can tell you the name of just about every player in MLB who made an impressive defensive play last night, and which pitchers have the most wins... but I'm still not sure if the Raiders won last week.

Having said all of that, you asked for my NFL predictions, so I'll give them to you. However, I'm only giving you division, conference, and Super Bowl champions.

AFC North

Pittsburgh - they always seem to come around at some point.

AFC South

Indianapolis - the Titans could give 'em a run for their money, though.

AFC East

New England - it pains me to say it, but it's true.

AFC West

Denver - I think Peyton is finally declining enough to not be sure about this pick.

NFC North

Green Bay - because seriously, who else in the North is going to challenge them?

NFC South

Atlanta - I agree with you. It's the year of Matt Ryan.

NFC East

Dallas - possibly just wishful thinking, without Tony and Dez. Weak division this year helps, though.

NFC West

Seattle - I don't love this team, but they're significantly better than the alternatives.

AFC Champs

New England Patriots - for the record, I hate this prediction more than all of the rest.

NFC Champs

Green Bay Packers - I really hope I'm wrong and that when Dez Bryant makes an obvious catch this year, it'll stand.

Super Bowl Champs

Green Bay Packers - I just can't bring myself to admit that the Pats might win. Again.

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The NFL Crystal Ball

It's week two so I have an advantage.

I'm going to get the AFC out of the way.  I don't like the AFC.  I think it's because, get this, no really, this is actually my reason I think, I hate the designated hitter.  Really, the DH is not for people who love baseball, it's for people who love action movies.  Since the DH is an American league thing and the AFC is the American Football Conference, I don't like the AFC.  Sorry AFC.  It's unjustified, but that is the depth of my disdain for the DH.  My hatred for the DH actually carries over into an entirely different sport.

AFC East:
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. Miami
4. New York (Jets)

AFC West:
1. Denver
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

AFC South:
1. Indianapolis
2. Texans
3. Jacksonville
4. Tennessee

AFC North:
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinatti
4. Cleveland

Thoughts?  Not really because I don't care.  I think the AFC is incredibly week.  The AFC North might be the closest division.

At the end I have the playoff seeds:
1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Denver
4. Baltimore
WC 1. Buffalo
WC 2. Pittsburgh

AFC championship
Indianapolis over New England


Alright, the important league...the one that matters.

NFC East:
1. Dallas
2. Philadelphia
3. Washington
4. New York (Giants)

Notes: If Tony Romo didn't break a bone tonight Dallas wins hands down and takes the NFC 1 seed. But they will barely make the playoffs by winning the division by riding on the defense and the fact that Philadelphia is highly over rated and Washington and New York are terrible.  Lucky for Dallas Romo will get healthy just in time to ride into the playoffs with some momentum.

NFC West:
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. St. Louis
4. San Fancisco

Notes: Ugh, Seattle again.  They're so annoying, but they are truly good.  They will win.  Arizona will see a resurgence from their old geezer receiver Larry Fitzgerald and they will give Seattle a run for their money.  St. Louis is going to annoy them both by being better than they've been in a long time, but not yet good enough.

NFC South:
1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

Notes: Matt Ryan is going to have a career year.  He is going to move himself up into the upper tier of quarterbacks this season.  Drew Brees is still Drew Brees and will throw for a billion yards.  Cam Newton is still on a bad team.  Too bad for him.  He's pretty good.

NFC North:
1. Green Bay
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Chicago

Notes: Green Bay is a very good team and Aaron Rogers really wants it.  Minnesota will find a groove and Teddy Bridgewater breaks out thanks to the addition of A.P. and proves he's got what it takes.  Detroit gets three because they aren't Chicago.  Chicago gave all their mojo to the Cubbies and suck so bad they could be mistaken for them from years past.  They're terrible.

Playoffs:
1. Green Bay
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. Dallas
WC 1. Minnesota
WC 2. Arizona

NFC Championship Dallas over Atlanta

Superbowl Dallas over Indianapolis

Your turn.

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The Big Game

Dear Joel,

I was going to begin by apologizing for missing my post last week, but it appears you've missed your posts for the last two weeks, so maybe I don't need to.

If I'm not mistaken, today is your 10th wedding anniversary, so CONGRATULATIONS to you and your wonderful wife, Pam. I was thinking about you both yesterday because I have a co-worker who is irritated that he has to attend a friend's wedding this Saturday. His irritation is based on the fact that the wedding ceremony is taking place right in the middle of the Iowa vs. Iowa State football game. It made me chuckle, remembering a certain college roommate of mine who was similarly irritated with you 10 years ago for scheduling your wedding on the day of the game as well.

The Iowa vs. Iowa State game is like a state holiday around here. Except, unlike most other holidays, there's a whole fan base whose day will be ruined by Saturday night.

So, 10 years ago you got married on the day of the big game, and today, you celebrate 10 years of marriage on another big football day. The NFL season begins with the Steelers vs. Patriots game this evening. Since becoming a bigger and bigger baseball fan over the last few years, I've paid less and less attention to the NFL's offseason. Therefore, I really have no idea who is supposed to be good and who is supposed to be bad this year.

So I turn to you. I want to hear your predictions for all 8 division champions, both conference champions, and eventual Super Bowl champions this season. Maybe I'll give you a prize if you guess mostly correctly.

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Is this called having a fetish?

Dear Joel,

In a few hours I'll be on a flight to Connecticut to have an on-site meeting with one of my customers. It's my fourth trip to the same location in the last 12 months. I like traveling, but I've discovered that I don't love it when it's for work. Having said that, I think I'd enjoy traveling for work a little more if I got to visit a different customer now and then.

But enough complaining. You asked for interests of mine that I've picked up since college. I've been racking my brain for a few days now on that question, and I really can't think of much. I still play euchre when I can. I love playing slow pitch softball. I love watching baseball. I think I watch more documentaries now than I did then, but that's largely due to the existence of Netflix.

I still watch The West Wing, though. Because some things never change.

Speaking of TWW, let me ask you a question about that show. In the fourth season there's an episode called Arctic Radar and in it, Josh Lyman explains to a new employee why she can't wear her Star Trek button around the office, even though, as she explains, it symbolizes duty and honor and loyalty and those characteristics should be celebrated at the White House. 

Josh says, "I'm a Star Trek fan. All of them. But here's what I don't do, and tell me if any of this sounds familiar: 'Let's list our ten favorite episodes. Let's list our least favorite episodes. Let's list our favorite galaxies. Let's make a chart to see how often our favorite galaxies appear in our favorite episodes. What Romulan would you most like to see coupled with a Cardassian and why? Let's spend a weekend talking about Romulans falling in love with Cardassians and then let's do it again.' That's not being a fan. That's having a fetish. And I don't have a problem with that, except you can't bring your hobbies in to work, okay?"

I happen to know that there are a lot of people who treat TWW exactly like the "fetish" Josh describes there. I know that because I'm borderline one of them. Do you think the show's writer, Aaron Sorkin, knew that about his own show when he wrote it? And if so, do you think he was trying to send a message to superfans that they shouldn't dwell on it too much? And if so, am I ignoring that message right now?

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Four Eyes

Dear Jake,

I have to start by saying that your response to my question from my previous post leaves me wondering if you understood the tongue-in-cheek nature with which I was asking.  I was not-so-subtly hinting that I think it would be wonderful if you, your wife, and my niece moved over my way.  Though it's in all ways selfish I do think that there are good reasons for you to consider it.

I also want you to know that while I wouldn't say that there is a single correct way to educate a child I do think that there are superior ways.  Your cynicism for public school is not unfounded.  I too know many godly men and women from a wide variety of education backgrounds and would agree that parental involvement and education at home is easily the most important part of the process.  After all, I was raised in a public school and while I don't consider myself "godly" I do consider myself a Christian who is very much in love with my Savior Jesus Christ.  Here's the thing though.  2015 looks A LOT different than 1988 did within the public sector. 

I remember Mrs. Bradfield kept a cord of three strands complete with matching proverb hanging on her wall.  I remember her talking about why it was there and unabashedly declaring her devotion to Jesus in the classroom.  It was a different time.  None of that is okay now.

But the education can be good and that's why they're there.  I can teach them who God is.  I certainly wouldn't leave it up to a school teacher anyway.

Maybe.  Maybe.  Remember though, I've worked with Jr. and Sr. high school students now for 10 years and I have learned a lot about education and let me tell you this.  We have turned our schools into a place where mediocrity is celebrated while success and extraordinary are pinned down and held back.

But that's not why public school is the last resort for me.  Honestly, there are many private schools that are just expensive places to do the same thing.

My biggest concern is something called world view.  I think that we all are born into this world with distorted vision.  It's imperfect.  Everything we learn becomes something that we see.  We even talk like that right?  You hear someone say, "...well the way I see it..."  They say that because they "see" truth but that truth is distorted or imperfect.  This is where I think Christian education isn't just a good option for Christians.  I actually put more weight on it than that.  I believe that Christians, if they have any choice at all, SHOULD choose Christian education. This is because I think our job is to help our covenant children put on the glasses of the Gospel so that they can correct that distored vision.  All things, all truth, should be viewed through The Word or...you know...Jesus.  The best philosophy (christian or otherwise), the best science, the best history, the best literature (christian or otherwise), the best music, art, etc... should be seen through the lens of the Gospel. I think that a private Christian school does that better than public schools (basically because public schools don't do it at all) and I DO think that it is so important that it's okay to tell other Christians that it's something they should do if they have any choice at all.  Scripture speaks a lot to this, but I think it's summed up pretty much when Jesus claims that he is the truth and, simply put, if that's true, then the truth isn't taught at public schools.  At least not anymore.

Notice I haven't mentioned homeschooling.  That's because I think that homeschooling is a great option for Christian education.

Notice that I didn't mention Classical Christian education.  That's because it's not about the classical part.  I do love it and I'd love to share why and perhaps I will someday, but not today.

Can Christians still go to public schools and come out on the other side as Christians?  Absolutely!

Can Christians still go to Christian school and come out on the other side and walk away from their faith?  Absolutely! 

As mentioned before I've been a part of students' lives for a long time.  I have had students from both public school and Christian school.  100% of the time the one from the Christian school had a deeper understanding of who Jesus is, what He said, and how science, math, history, art, music, etc... fit into who He is than those who went to one of the best public schools in the state.  This doesn't make them any MORE Christian, but it does give them a head start as they continue to go deeper in their faith.  Actually, there are certain families that are incredibly serious about their faith, incredibly faithful to the church, they pray together, read scripture together, and you know that their children have been raised to know Jesus well.  I can't tell you how often in our discussions the Christian school kid and the public school kid come to the same conclusion about issues.  Only one of them, however, can usually tell you "why" they came to that conclusion.  I want my kids to know the why.

You have some time, and you're brilliant.  You always have been.  You will choose the right education for your child and if you choose public school, I will just assume that you know better than me, because you probably do.  Even though it's a ways out for you (blink and it'll be here) I want to strongly encourage you to look at Christian education.

To answer your question about a game night, card night, or other night that I hang out with guys, my answer would be yes...I think I do.  Pretty much every Wednesday night I get together with 3 other guys and we share our lives together and when the church clears out, go plug in guitars and drums and see how loud we can get before we get a headache in our old age.  A regular card night consisting of euchre, drinks (Diet Pepsi of course...since mom will probably read this), and tortilla chips with bean dip has always been on my radar and perhaps, if one of my brothers would move this way, it would come to fruition.

Here is a question for you, what is a new hobby or interest that you have picked up after college that I might be interested in but don't know it yet?

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I'm Edumacated

Dear Joel,

There's an episode of The West Wing in which Sam Seaborn says, "Education is the silver bullet. Education is everything. We don't need little changes, we need gigantic, monumental changes. Schools should be palaces. The competition for the best teachers should be fierce. They should be making six-figure salaries. Schools should be incredibly expensive for government and absolutely free of charge to its citizens, just like national defense."

I like Sam, so I want to forget for a moment that he's kind of a moron in this case. I also want to forget that he somehow thinks national defense is "free" to American citizens. As though the almighty government just has money that has graciously rained down upon it by the benevolent God (who, by the way, you're not allowed to talk about at those schools Sam loves so much) of Liberalism. I want to briefly turn off my BS meter, which flashes brightly and boldly every time someone in politics talks about Americans receiving something for free (and though you may think BS stands for bull sh*t, it could, in this case, just as easily stand for Bernie Sanders).

So, forgetting all of that, let's talk about education, because you asked me when I'm going to move to a part of the state that has a classical Christian school.

I have to start by saying I don't think there is a single "correct" way for Christians to educate their children. There are public schools, private schools, private Christian schools, classical Christian schools, homeschooling, and probably other options I don't even know about. Every community is different. Every school is different. Every kid is different. I have no interest in telling anyone that the "only way" to raise up a Godly child is to enroll them in a certain kind of school. I believe that, primarily, because I know Godly men and women from a wide sampling of educational backgrounds. To me, it's much more important to raise your child in a Godly household than it is to bicker about the right kind of school.

I should also say that my only kid is still four months away from being born, so I have no expertise or experience with raising kids, and I also have several years before my wife and I need to make educational decisions.

I said early on that I wanted to talk about education, but my disclaimers have filled up so much space that I feel like I can only summarize my thoughts now with a few sentences. So here they are:

I'm very interested in classical Christian education, and with my limited research and understanding of the options, that might be the one I would vote for if I had to choose today. Unfortunately, as you pointed out, we don't have one here in Ames, and I don't know if I'd be able to move somewhere else with that as the primary reason. I also really like the idea of homeschooling, except I'd be jealous if Elizabeth was the one who got to teach our kids. The only alternative, though, would be for me to quit my job so I could homeschool our kids, and Elizabeth would have to bring in all our family's income. My current preferences for Christian or homeschool education primarily come from the cynicism I have about government-run schools. As I said above, I don't think it's a make-or-break issue. I probably have (or will have) nieces and/or nephews who attend public schools, and I fully support my siblings' discernment in how they choose to educate. If my kid was turning 6 this year, though, and I had to make a decision about her education, I still wouldn't answer hypotheticals.

And you thought you were gonna get an answer out of me.

Do you have a standing poker night with friends every month or every quarter? Do you have a card club? Other than your connection group (or whatever your church calls them), do you have any regularly occurring hang-out nights with friends?

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